ABSTRACT
Objective:To establish and validate a prognostic model of a contrast-enhanced ultrasound scoring(CEUS)system for evaluating renal artery stenosis(RAS)in the elderly.Methods:This was a single-center retrospective study.A total of 324 elderly RAS patients admitted to Beijing Hospital from October 2017 to July 2020 were randomly assigned into the model group(n=174)and the validation group(150)in a 1∶1 ratio.Clinical and imaging data of patients on admission including general conditions, previous medical history, blood pressure, blood creatinine, renal artery stenosis and cortical blood perfusion in the affected kidney and renal function(GFR)at 1-year follow-up were collected.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a model of the CEUS scoring system.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and area under the ROC curve(AUC)were used to evaluate prediction accuracy.Clinical application value of the CEUS scoring system model was evaluated via decision curve analysis using a nomogram.Results:Baseline clinical and radiomic data had no significant difference between the model group and the validation group( P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that age( OR=1.242, 95% CI: 1.081-1.427, P<0.01), diabetes( OR=1.545, 95% CI: 1.107-2.156, P<0.05), blood pressure( OR=1.328, 95% CI: 1.056-1.670, P<0.05), renal function( OR=2.374, 95% CI: 1.216-3.887, P<0.01)and cortical blood perfusion parameter( OR=2.646, 95% CI: 1.553-6.369, P<0.01)were risk factors for the deterioration of renal function during 1 year follow-up.Based on these results, a nomogram for the CEUS scoring system model was drawn, and its consistency index, the C-Index, was 0.725(95% CI: 0.653-0.776). The AUC of the CEUS scoring system was 0.824 and the Youden index was 0.711 in the model group, with a specificity of 0.774 and a sensitivity of 0.837.The AUC of the CEUS scoring system was 0.853 and the Youden index was 0.715 in the validation group, with a specificity of 0.684 and a sensitivity of 0.889.There was no significant difference in ROC curve between the two groups( D=1.387, P>0.05). In addition, calibration charts of the two models showed that the calibration curve of the CEUS scoring system was close to the standard curve, with no statistically significant difference( P>0.05). Conclusions:The CEUS scoring system model can be used to predict the risk of worsening renal function in elderly RAS patients during 1-year follow-up.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To observe the effect of the cortical blood perfusion parameter of wash-in area under curve (iAUC) with contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS) on the effect of short-term outcomes of stent implantation in patients with severe renal artery stenosis (RAS).Methods:Retrospective analysis was performed on 82 patients with unilateral severe RAS who received stent implantation in Beijing Hospital from October 2017 to December 2019. According to the baseline iAUC before CEUS, all patients were divided into the poorly-perfused group (iAUC<850.0 dB×s) (37 cases) and the well-perfused group (iAUC≥850.0 dB×s) (45 cases). Baseline and perioperative clinical-imaging data were analyzed between the two groups. Followed up for 10-12 (11.5±1.7) months, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Log-rank test were used to analyze the rate of adverse cardiac and renal vascular events and hypertension control rates.Results:Compared with the well-perfused group, the poorly-perfused group showed a longer course of hypertension, more diabetic patients, higher systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, 24 h average systolic blood pressure, and 24 h average diastolic blood pressure, lower glomerular filtration rate, and severe renal artery stenosis. Besides, the iAUC, wash-out AUC and the peak intensity were lower, the average transit time was longer, and the hypoglycemic treatment rate was higher (all P<0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Log-rank test analysis showed that the occurrence of cardio-renal vascular events ( HR=0.361, 95% CI=0.144-0.907, P=0.012) and renal function deterioration rate ( HR=0.286, 95% CI=0.090-0.914, P=0.035) in the well-perfused group were significantly lower than those in the poorly-perfused group. The blood pressure results demonstrated that the effective rate of hypertension treatment in the well-perfused group was significantly higher than that in the poorly-perfused group (93.3% vs 59.5%, P<0.001), but the improvement rate of hypertension (60.0% vs 43.2%) and cure rate (28.9% vs 16.2%) were not statistically significant between the two groups(all P>0.05). Conclusions:Severe RAS patients with decreased baseline iAUC often have diabetes, longer duration of hypertension, significantly reduced glomerular filtration rate and more severe RAS, short-term outcomes are worse with stent implantation.